atrocities

GUEST COLUMN | ROBERT LEONARD

The time to prepare for mass deportations is now

As the Trump administration prepares to begin the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants in the United States, immigrants and their families, their employers, and a variety of organizations are preparing to assist those who will be affected. Trump has said that he wants to deport millions of immigrants.

His recent Cabinet nominations and White House staff appointments show he is willing to appoint people who will do that without hesitation. If confirmed by the Senate, Kristi Noem in charge of Homeland Security, and Trump attorney and former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi at the Department of Justice will lead the deportation efforts. Trump Border Czar Tom Homan is already making threats to sanctuary cities. They will do exactly as Trump bids, legal or not, and “thanks” to recent decisions by the Supreme Court, he’s free to pardon anyone he wants if they break federal laws, including himself.

No matter what side of the issue one is on, deportations will happen. In the best-case scenario, deportation will work smoothly and effectively without injuries, deaths, or unnecessary family separations (there will be family separations of those who have been found guilty of crimes).

In case it doesn’t work smoothly, we need to consider the alternatives.

While I present the worstcase scenario as a means of preparation, it’s important for those who will be observing deportations unfold not to overreact.

Democrats often paint a picture of doom and gloom regarding Republican policies, and when the outcomes aren’t as bad as Democrats predicted, Republicans claim victory, even if their policies caused great harm. But we can document what’s happening in real-time to try to avoid any possible outcomes leading up to the worst-case scenario.

Where will it start? It could start here in Iowa, a red state without large coastal media players to see it happen. Gov. Kim Reynolds may seek redemption and Trump’s approval given her support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucuses.

She has deployed the Iowa National Guard to Texas to support border control efforts there, and I find it unlikely she will hesitate to deploy our troops here. It could also be located partly for revenge, in Kamala Harris’ California, or Tim Walz’s Minnesota, for example.

Now the worst-case scenario. The ramifications of this along the timescale Trump desires will stress the government’s resources, cost a great deal, create havoc in labor markets, and cause diplomatic rifts worldwide. Families will be split, houses and apartments abandoned, and the undocumented driven underground. Communities will be devastated. Positive relationships that have been built over decades between the undocumented and local law enforcement will be destroyed. Trump and the MAGA media will blame all of this on the undocumented and the Biden administration.

The undocumented immigrant violent crime rate is half the rate of U.S.-born citizens. Statistics from 2022 show that in 2 percent of interactions with police, the general public experienced a non-fatal threat or use of force.

Minority populations experienced between two and 12 times the non-fatal threat or use of force than white people. When law enforcement shootings are involved, 55 percent of victims die.

Given that the deportation of millions of people will involve millions of

interactions between law enforcement and the undocumented, the probability that there will be violence and deaths is high. Each of these interactions will potentially become flashpoints if the results are visible to the public.

MAGA citizens will use social media to typecast undocumented people in an ugly way. Lawabiding undocumented families will come forward or go underground in desperation. Any violence that occurs, including atrocities inflicted by law enforcement, will be seen by the MAGA media as being the fault of those being deported, which horrifically will normalize subsequent violence against any undocumented people anywhere. Normalized violence against the undocumented and mass deportations will be a humanitarian crisis unseen in America since slavery. It will make the internment of American citizens of Japanese descent during World War II pale in comparison.

Even in the best-case scenario, it’s hard to see how this will go well.

In the worst-case scenario, the Trump administration deputizes large numbers of contractors, National Guard personnel, local authorities, and federal authorities to rout out all undocumented immigrants. Members of right-wing militia groups will be first to apply to be deputized. Trump’s instruction statement to the Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by” will trigger them and other rightwing militant groups to engage. Regardless of citizenship individuals born overseas will be encouraged to carry citizenship documentation. Short timelines for deportation will be established. Camps to house undocumented people will be needed outside large metropolitan areas. States less inclined to follow Trump’s dicta may have him initiate state-versusstate confrontations.

This will not go well, and people are already seeking to profit from the deportation efforts. As one example, the stock market price of Axon, the company that makes Tasers, was up 29 percent recently. I’m sure private contractors in the prison industry are preparing to obtain government contracts, and that their executives are giddy about the prospects of record profits.

So, as we consider mitigating some of the possibly horrific outcomes, let’s look to history and ask a dark question.

What would the German people have done if they had known in advance what Hitler was going to do to Jewish people and other persecuted groups? Would they have resisted?

I recognize that this comparison to the Trump administration is an uncomfortable one, but I do know that Trump is an authoritarian, wants to deport millions of people, calls undocumented people vermin, scum, animals, and other dehumanizing terms, is filling administrative posts with MAGA loyalists, and will replace military leaders who won’t do his bidding, damned the illegality. If his plans work, he will have a MAGA armed forces.

So, what do we as the American people do as deportations begin?

Fortunately, we have incredible assets the German people didn’t. We document the atrocities if we can do so safely on our phones, and distribute our documentation to the non-MAGA news media.

Unfortunately, the broadcast, digital, print media, and social platforms in America are now in two major silos — MAGA media and non-MAGA media. MAGA media’s biggest players are Fox, Newsmax, OAN, and any Sinclair programming. Also, X. Examples of non-MAGA media are our legacy media, as well as most of our small-town newspapers and radio stations, and the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Atlantic, the McClatchy papers, CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, MSNBC, States Newsroom, Public Television, Public Radio, ProPublica, and more. We know who they are. Sorry if I didn’t mention someone.

MAGA media will do what MAGA media has done from the beginning of the Trump era. Portray everything in a pro-Trump light and we can expect that any atrocities committed will be covered as pro-Trump and that the victims of the atrocities will be blamed as perpetrators.

This will be a humanitarian crisis. It isn’t going to be prevented without planning, and planning needs to begin now. In the unlikely case that there are no atrocities, it won’t hurt to plan for them. If there are atrocities and we aren’t prepared, the consequences will be horrific. So how to prepare? It’s conceptually simple. There are hundreds, even thousands of groups nationwide who advocate for undocumented and other marginalized people who are trusted in their communities. Leaders of those groups should determine how they will gather the documentation in their local communities and distribute it to the trusted media. The leaders of those groups and journalists in the legacy media should reach out and establish real-world relationships with each other to help document atrocities and report on them, should they occur.

Groups trusted in their communities should have a centralized point where documentation of atrocities should be sent. Those groups should inform their communities of this plan. They should identify the local media they trust to share that information with so the general public can know that atrocities are happening, and pressure be put on the Trump administration and local government officials. Hashtags aren’t enough. Elon Musk’s X can’t be trusted. There will be deepfakes and lies with most of them curated on X by Musk. We need human-to-human contact and mutual trust to be established in real life before the atrocities begin. If the person-toperson organization is built after the atrocities begin, it will be too late. Preparing before the atrocities will save the lives of both the undocumented and law enforcement officers.

Experts should determine whether apprehended individuals will be better off telling or not telling authorities of their country of origin, as the latter will clog the process, which may be good.

And it’s time to rally, plan, and organize with possibly the greatest allies of the undocumented — a legion of sympathetic young people on TikTok, Instagram, or whatever social media platform they prefer. Democrats raised a billion dollars quickly for the last presidential campaign. Let’s resource these groups and young people.

Donald Trump, we are watching you.

Much of this scenario is informed by the fact that I served for maybe 10 years or more on our Local Emergency Planning Committee. With local first responders, the Iowa National Guard, and the Iowa State Patrol, with many of them being my friends. We performed table-top and real-world exercises planning for disasters — disease outbreaks, mass shootings, terrorist attacks, and much, much more. I respect these people for working to make our communities safe.

Robert Leonard is an anthropologist and former radio reporter. He has bylines in the New York Times, TIME, the Des Moines Register, the Iowa Capital Dispatch, USA Today and more. He was on the Marion County Local Emergency Committee for many years. His writing can be found at Deep Midwest: Politics and Culture.