Gulf dead zone should be named the Iowa Dead Zone

Death and taxes get all the ink. But you’ve also got to admire the inevitability of the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico.

Like clockwork, every August scientists take a cruise in the gulf to measure the size of the dead zone — an area where fertilizer pollution from Iowa plays a starring role in spawning algae blooms that die and rob the water of oxygen. Aquatic life, such as shrimp, fish and crab have to escape the oxygen-depleted waters or expire. Oysters die on the ocean floor.

Sometimes the dead zone is big, and sometimes it’s smaller. But one thing is certain, Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig will swear we’re making progress cleaning up our waters up north so tons of nitrate do not flow into the gulf.

Pollute, measure, spin, repeat.

Naig is co-chair of the Mississippi River/Gulf of “America” Hypoxia Task Force, which is tasked with figuring out how to shrink the dead zone. It’s the reason we have the Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which Iowa landowners can follow or ignore. It’s all voluntary, you know.

And as long as we’re renaming stuff, with all the soil and pollutants we’ve sent south, it really should be the Iowa Dead Zone.

We’ve pledged to control pollution and reduce the dead zone to a mere 1,900 square miles by 2035. Shrimpers, fishermen and others who rely on the gulf for their livelihoods are hoping we keep our promise.

Are we well on our way to our goal? Not even close.

In 2018, the year Naig became ag secretary, a University of Iowa study showed nitrogen runoff flowing from Iowa to the gulf increased by 50 percent over two decades. Iowa contributed about half of all the nitrates reaching the gulf through the Mississippi and Missouri rivers.

“If we solve Iowa, we solve the gulf,” UI research engineer Keith Schilling said as the study was released.

“Just based on water quality data, I think we can say we’ve not made much progress over the past 20 years in terms of nitrogen,” said former UI researcher Chris Jones, who is now Naig’s Democratic challenger in November’s election.

In 2019, the dead zone was estimated at 6,952 square miles.

“We all understand that we feed into the Gulf,” Naig said, “and shame on us if we don’t take advantage of the opportunity to show that we can be effective.”

But forget regulations. “I think we’ll get to a better place, and we’ll get there faster through unleashing people’s creativity,” Naig said.

In 2020, the dead zone was smaller, just 2,116 square miles, or 1.4 million acres of aquatic habitat. Hurricane Hanna churned through the gulf just days before the yearly dead zone cruise, contributing to the smaller estimate.

“This process takes time but I am confident that we are on the right track,” Naig said.

In 2021, the dead zone measured 6,334 square miles, or about 4 million acres of underwater habitat. Naig said task force states are showing “continuous improvement.”

TODD DORMAN

“We know that changes on the land lead to positive changes in the water, and these investments benefit our local communities and our neighbors downstream.”.

Matt Rota, policy director for the environmental advocacy group Healthy Gulf, had a different take.

“Two things are clear,” Rota said in a statement at the time, “We can’t keep doing the same thing and solely rely on voluntary measures. And we need more money to support reductions.”

In 2022, lower summer river flow on the Mississippi sliced the dead zone to 3,275 square miles, or two million acres of habitat.

“We’ve got to balance commerce and water quality,” Naig said in 2022.

“And of course we know cover crops can play a key role in keeping our valuable soil in place,” Naig said.

In 2023, the dead zone was estimated at 3,058 square miles. Again, drought conditions in the Midwest led to lower stream flows.

“Hypoxia Task Force states are making water quality progress, but we are far from satisfied,” Naig said.

In 2024, the dead zone measured 6,075 square miles, 12th largest on record.

In 2025, the dead zone was estimated at 4,402 square miles.

Like the UI study in 2018, a 2025 study commissioned by Polk County found nitrate concentrations in Iowa rivers continue to grow and are among the nation’s worst. And 80 percent of the pollution comes from agriculture, from commercial fertilizer and manure.

The five-year average dead zone in 2025 stood at 4,755 square miles. That’s smaller than the five year average in 2020, estimated at 5,408 square miles. But that average includes a record 8,776 square-mile dead zone in 2017.

The 1,900 square-mile nutrient reduction goal is not even on the far off horizon.

But we’re trying so hard. We pump tens of millions of dollars into nitrate control practices on farms. But landowners also add untold miles of tile drainage every year. The tile is an expressway between fields and waterways.

We don’t do enough water monitoring to tell us if our money is well spent. Republicans who control the Legislature cut off funding for a network of 60 stream and river sensors monitoring nitrate levels in real time.

A 2026 study by researchers at Iowa State found that farmers’ use of cover crops lacks long term consistency. Among 519 farmers who participated in the Farm and Rural Life Poll, 28.9 percent are “intermittent adopters” who may use cover crops one year and abandon the practice the next year.

And 64.5 percent of those surveyed are continuous nonadopters.

In 2024, Iowa producers planted 3.7 million acres of cover crops in a state with more than 29 million acres dedicated to farming. We’ve drained 4 to 6 million acres of wetlands since European settlement.

So we count projects, not successes. The projects aren’t permanent. They can’t keep up with the expansion of tile drainage. And no landowner is required to do anything because it’s all strictly volu nt a r y.

The Hypooxia Task Force isn’t supposed to be just some board that shrugs at the dead zone.

It is the fulfillment of a promise we made. And it’s failing, spectacularly. It’s embarrassing that we continue to allow our producers to follow practices harmful to other Americans trying to earn a living. Not to mention the many consequences of ruining our own natural resources.

According to Naig, things are improving, we’re on the right track and big progress is just over the next hill.

So is the water significantly cleaner? Nope.

Naig should be held accountable for this failure as he runs for re-election this fall. If Louisiana shrimpers had a say, he’d be on his way back to his old job lobbying for Monsanto in no time.

His campaign website says he’s committed to accelerating state efforts to protect Iowa’s natural resources. But who is going to protect them from politicians like Naig?

(319) 398-8262; todd.dorman@thegazette.com

Murky, sediment-rich Mississippi River water mixes with fresh saltwater in the Gulf of Mexico on June 7, 2024. Nutrient runoff from 41 percent of the United States flows down the Mississippi, creating a“dead zone.”(Aerial support provided by SouthWings)

LA’SHANCE PERRY , THE LENS